Sunday, January 29, 2012

Euro stocks lower despite Greek hopes, bull market; DAX down 0.43%

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Europe’s Crisis and 4Q Earnings Looks to Shake EURUSD, AUDUSD, Risk

The opening trading session of this week was an odd mix. For contrast to the first reaction to the Euro Zone (France, Italy, Spain, Portugal) downgrades we had the US market offline for a market holiday.

“Europe’s Crisis and 4Q Earnings Looks to Shake EURUSD, AUDUSD, Risk” is categorized as “foreign exchange”. This video was provided by DailyFX.com. DailyFX is a global online provider of foreign exchange (forex) trading and related services to retail and institutional customers worldwide. For additional video content, click the “video” tab at the top of this page.

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Emerging Energy Stocks Led 2011 DR Trade on Oil, BNY Mellon Says

Shares of emerging-market energy and mining companies were the most traded among depositary receipts last year as gains in oil and metals prices outweighed concern that the global economy is slowing, according to Bank of New York Mellon Corp.

Trading in gas, oil and mining stock rose 23 percent to $1.5 trillion in 2011, and companies in the sector raised $4.3 billion last year, more than any other industry, BNY Mellon said in an e-mailed report. Depositary receipts, or DRs, are receipts representing foreign shares of stock held on deposit at a bank and denominated in dollars.

Crude oil rose 8.2 percent last year, the third annual advance, as the collapse in Libyan exports cut supply and U.S. stimulus measures kept the world’s largest economy afloat. Commodities also gained for the third year, according to the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index. The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for global growth last week, warning that the European debt crisis could derail the world economy.

“In a year of uncertainty, investors found opportunities to diversify their portfolio and access global growth via DRs, with activity in the energy and mining sectors particularly brisk,” Michael Cole-Fontayn, chief executive officer of BNY Mellon’s Depositary Receipts business, said in the report.

DRs of Moscow, Russia-based OAO Gazprom (OGZPY), the world’s biggest producer of natural gas, Brazil’s state-controlled oil company Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PETR4), as well as Rio De Janeiro-based Vale SA (VALE3), the world’s biggest iron-ore producer, were among the most traded, according to the report.

Total DR volume jumped 19 percent to 175 billion receipts in 2011, BNY Mellon data show.

World Bank says Sudan and South Sudan risks damaging both economies over oil fees

The World Bank stated that the dispute between Sudan and South Sudan over oil fees, which led the south to stop crude production, risks damaging both economies because of their dependence on the natural resource.







South Sudan started with stopping production earlier this month after accusing Sudan of seizing oil that passes through its territory via a pipeline to an export terminal on the Red Sea and of seizing vessels carrying crude. Sudan says it is diverting the fuel to cover unpaid fees for allowing it to transit the country. South Sudanese President Salva Kiir said on January 23 that Sudan has “looted” oil valued at $815 million.







“Considering the importance of oil to both sides, the lack of economic activities in the sector that’s predominant would have a huge and salutary impact on the economies,” Obiageli Ezekwesili, vice president for Africa at the World Bank, said in an interview yesterday in Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital.






South Sudan took control of about three-quarters of Sudan’s output of 490,000 barrels a day when it gained independence from its northern neighbor in July. The crude is pumped mainly by China National Petroleum Corp., Malaysia’s Petroliam Nasional Bhd. and India’s ONGC Videsh Ltd. Sudan is demanding compensation for the loss and also wants South Sudan to pay $6 a barrel to transit the oil via the country. The neighboring country has offered to pay $1 a barrel.






The dispute presents an opportunity to “look at options other than oil for growing their economies,” Ezekwesili said. South Sudan relies on oil to generate more than 90 percent of government revenue, and Sudan depends on it for 30 percent.

'Iranian parliament drafts plan to cut oil exports to Europe'

TEHRAN - The Iranian parliament has finished drawing up a draft plan calling for a halt to Iran's oil exports to the European countries that voted for sanctions on Iran's oil industry, MP Nasser Soudani has announced.


The Iranian MPs decided to work out the plan after the European Union formally imposed an oil embargo on Iran and agreed to a freeze on the assets of the Central Bank of Iran on January 23.

"The plan has four articles, one of whose main points reads that the Islamic Republic of Iran will cut oil exports to these countries before the European countries stop" importing oil from Iran, Soudani, who is a member of the Majlis Energy Committee, told the Persian service of the Fars News Agency on Saturday.

The plan may undergo a number of revisions, he added.


Soudani also said that a number of MPs believe that Iran should impose an oil embargo on the European Union for five years.


"In another article of the plan, the government has been obliged to halt the import of any kind of commodity from the countries which imposed sanctions on Iran," he stated.

"However, the national security and energy committees should announce their views on the plan," he added.

New Zealand Expects Asian Interest

MELBOURNE—Asian investors will increasingly target assets in New Zealand including government debt securities, natural resources and farms, pushing up the value of the nation's currency, Prime Minister John Key said Sunday.

"We are starting to see quite an increase in interest from Asia, particularly as they look at New Zealand and see the potential in the mining and exploration centers, we've seen significant interest there, and obviously in the agriculture sector where we have a pre-eminent position," Mr. Key said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal during a visit here for talks with his Australian counterpart, Julia Gillard.
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The remarks come after Mr. Key's government approved Shanghai Pengxin Group's acquisition of 16 dairy farms in the country, one of the largest made by a Chinese company in New Zealand.

Mr. Key emphasized that China is especially interested in New Zealand-based assets.

"They like the New Zealand story. They are a country that is significantly worried about food security. Not only do they want to buy food, but they are increasingly starting to buy products on the basis of health benefits," said Mr. Key.

China is New Zealand's second-largest market after Australia. New Zealand was the first developed nation to sign a free-trade agreement with Beijing but recent investments have caused anxiety among some groups in the Pacific nation.

"Where we see more sensitivity is around the purchase of real assets in New Zealand," said Mr. Key, emphasizing that investments in farm land will have to meet strict conditions.

Aside from farms, New Zealand's government bond securities are drawing significant interest from Beijing and other foreign buyers as the small Pacific nation takes advantage of demand for safer assets following the worsening of the European sovereign debt crisis, according to the recently re-elected prime minister.

"There has been significant foreign interest, particularly out of China, but right across the world," Mr. Key said. "We think one of the reasons why the Aussie dollar and New Zealand dollar are so strong is that foreign interest in the securities market."

That demand has helped push up the value of the New Zealand dollar, or Kiwi, putting in pressure on some exporters and tourism.

"We are concerned at the level of the exchange rate because we think that above $0.75 [U.S.] it's very difficult for our export sector," Mr. Key said, adding that he doesn't see a drawback in the Kiwi's strength in the near term. "It's not a story I think is going to reverse anytime soon. I think we're in a new band now for a while and I don't think it's going to go away."

Despite both Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings downgrading the country's debt measure in September, citing its worsening external-debt position and the costs of earthquake recovery, Mr. Key is confident his government will return the budget to surplus in the fiscal year starting 2014.

Christchurch, the country's second-largest city, was wrecked by major earthquakes in 2010 and 2011, leaving the nation with a reconstruction bill estimated in the tens of billions of New Zealand dollars.

Mr. Key, a 50-year-old former investment banker, whose previous roles include serving as head of global foreign exchange for Merrill Lynch, led the National Party to a second consecutive election win in New Zealand in 2011 after voters endorsed his mandate for a partial sale of some prominent energy assets in an effort to help rebuild Christchurch.

"We think there is so much pent up demand for investment products from both domestically and offshore we are confident we can get them away," Mr. Key said.

Italian clothiers downplay euro crisis

MILAN – Ermenegildo Zegna and Raffaele Caruso are among the Italian luxury goods makers who say they are optimistic for 2012 even as Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis weighs on demand in the region and growth slows in Asia.


Suitmaker Zegna anticipates high single-digit percentage revenue growth, led by customers from outside Europe, after record sales and profit in 2011, said the company’s eponymous chief executive officer.


“Asia will be the real growth propeller, followed by the U.S.,” Zegna said earlier this month, before the company’s fall-winter 2012/2013 show in Milan.

Caruso, which makes menswear for brands including Christian Dior, expects sales to rise 20 percent this year based on current orders, CEO Umberto Angeloni said.


The luxury goods sector will expand 10 percent in 2012, or half last year’s rate, excluding currency moves and acquisitions, Thomas Mesmin, an analyst at CA Cheuvreux, estimates.

Sales will rise 20 percent in Asia, excluding Japan, 6 percent in the United States, 5 percent in Europe and 2.5 percent in Japan, he figures.


“Current sales growth is definitely not sustainable,” Mesmin wrote in a report last month.


“Don’t stop the party, just turn down the volume.”


The economic turmoil in Europe is cause for “major caution,” even if growth in Asia and the Americas compensates for a slowdown, said Roberto Cavalli CEO Gianluca Brozzetti.

Standard & Poor’s recent decision to downgrade the sovereign credit ratings of nine of the euro area’s 17 members, including Italy, will hurt local demand for luxury goods on the continent, regardless of customers’ net worth, said Zegna.


“It’s very much psychological,” Zegna said. “We have to be ready for bumps” until European leaders find a solution.


In the interim, the euro’s decline is boosting the value of sales in countries that use other currencies, said Salvatore Ferragamo CEO Michele Norsa.

The Florence company is “confident” for the year ahead after an “excellent” 2011, which included better-than-expected holiday sales, Norsa said before Ferragamo’s show.

India-China trade hits all time high of USD 73.9 bln in 2011

India-China bilateral trade hit a record USD 73.9 billion last year, but the ballooning trade deficit in Beijing's favour rose to over USD 27 billion, raising concern among Indian authorities.

The bilateral trade registered a USD 12.2 billion increase in 2011, taking the total to USD 73.9 billion as against USD 61.7 billion in 2010, according to official trade figures for the last year.

The trade deficit in 2011, however, piled up to USD 27.07 billion even though Indian exports to China went up to USD 23.4 billion registering a growth of almost 12.26 per cent compared to the same period in year 2010.

"The overall trade figure looks good but the deficit remains a cause for concern," Indian Ambassador to China S Jaishankar told PTI here. He said efforts are being made to improve market access for Indian products in China.

"We have some early signs of movement in access to the Indian IT products. But these are early days," he said, referring to various campaigns organised by the Indian Embassy to push IT and Pharmaceutical exports to China.

Most important thing is that the bilateral trade is growing well despite the global economic downturn, he said. Chinese officials have been acknowledging India's concerns over trade deficit and the issue was expected to figure in detail in India-China Trade
Ministers talks during the BRICS Commerce Meeting on March 28 in New Delhi.

The Indian exports, mainly composed of primary products and commodity sector, increased despite the decline of iron ore exports, which dominated exports to China for long due to ban on mining in Karnataka and Goa, said K Nagraj Naidu, head of the economic and trade wing of the Indian Embassy.

Chinese exports to India continue to surge crossing the USD 50 billion mark. The exports logged USD 50.04 billion registering a growth of 23.51 per cent over 2010.
The share of India-China bilateral trade in China's overall trade increased to about 3.8 per cent compared to 2.06 per cent in 2010.

Naidu said India's exports of ores, slag and ash to China have dropped by 11 per cent to 10.45 billion in 2011. Iron ore which has traditionally been the top item of export has dropped by 14 per cent to USD 9.6 billion in 2011 compared to the USD 11.2 billion exports in 2010.

The share of iron ore in the basket of Indian exports to China has dropped to 41 per cent in 2011 compared to 54 per cent in 2010 and 55 per cent in 2009, he said. The drop in iron ore exports could be attributed to the ban on mining in Karnataka, illegal mining in Goa, restriction on iron ore truck movements in Orissa.

Also the other reason could be that China is diversifying its spot iron ore purchases away from India, largely in favour of South Africa, Naidu said. India's cotton, yarn and fabric exports to China have seen a growth of 49 per cent reaching USD 3.1 billion in 2011.

While India's concerns over trade deficit remained, Indian officials say that there are encouraging signs about Chinese investments in India even though figures are not available as most of the investments are coming through Singapore and Mauritius.

The high volumes of Chinese trade in India is also focussed on infrastructure development specially, telecom and energy generation equipment. Over all trade and investment appears to emerging as a strong binding force for the bilateral ties, according to the officials.

India's items of export which have seen positive growth rates include, copper (USD two billion) precious stones (USD 1.1 billion), organic chemicals (USD 999 million) slat, sulphur, earth, stone (USD 514 million) and machinery (USD 478 million). Under machinery, India's principal exports to China included diesel machines worth USD 47 million and crank shafts worth USD 32 million. India is China’s 16th largest source of imports.

Forex - USD/CHF weekly outlook

Forexpros – The U.S. dollar tumbled to an almost two-month low against the Swiss franc on Friday, amid growing hopes for an agreement to restructure Greece’s sovereign debt.

USD/CHF hit 0.9113 on Friday, the pair̢۪s lowest since December 1; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9122 by close of trade on Friday, plummeting 2.66% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9065, the low of November 30 and resistance at 0.9235, the high of November 17.

Over the weekend, Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said Athens was one step away from concluding a deal on the EUR100 billion debt write-down scheme.

An agreement is necessary for Greece to secure the next tranche of bailout funds in order to prevent a sovereign debt default. Greece does not have enough money to cover a EUR14.5 billion bond repayment due March 20.

Meanwhile, sentiment remained supported although Fitch Ratings downgraded six European sovereigns including Italy. However, Fitch reaffirmed its rating on Ireland and left France and Germany, the euro zone's biggest members, untouched.

Earlier Friday, official data showed that the U.S. economy grew more slowly than expected in the fourth quarter of 2011.

The Commerce Department said U.S. gross domestic product expanded by 2.8% in the three months to December, the fastest quarterly rate in one-and-a-half years, but disappointing expectations for an increase of 3%.

The greenback came under broad selling pressure on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke pushed back the timing of a possible interest rate increase until late 2014 and indicated that the bank may embark on a third round of quantitative easing.

In Switzerland, data showed on Friday that the country̢۪s KOF economic barometer fell more-than-expected in January, reentering negative territory for the first time since 2009, indicating that the economy is likely to contract slightly in the coming months.

In the coming week, investors will be closely watching development in Greece as well as the outcome of Monday̢۪s European Union summit. Also Monday, Italy is to hold an auction of long term government bonds, in what will be an important test of demand for the country̢۪s debt.

In addition, the U.S. is to publish data on service and manufacturing sector growth while Friday̢۪s data on non-farm payrolls will be an important gauge of the recovery in the labor market.

Ahead of the coming week, Forexpros has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, January 30

In the U.S., the Bureau of Economic Analysis is to release a report on its price index of core personal consumption expenditures, followed by data on personal spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

Tuesday, January 31

Switzerland is to release a report by UBS on its consumption indicator, which is a combined reading of five economic indicators.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to produce government data on employment cost inflation, a key gauge of consumer inflation, followed by industry data on house price inflation and the purchasing managers̢۪ index in Chicago. The country is also to release data on consumer confidence.

Wednesday, February 1

The U.S. is to release industry data on non-farm employment change, an important indicator of consumer spending. The country is also to produce a report by the Institute for Supply Management on manufacturing activity, followed by government data on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, February 2

Switzerland is to release official data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imported and exported goods.

The U.S. is to produce government data on unemployment claims as well as preliminary data on nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs. Later in the day, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is to testify on the economic outlook and federal budget situation before the house budget committee.

Friday, February 3

The U.S. is to round up the week with official reports on non-farm employment change and the country̢۪s unemployment rate. The country is also to release official data on average hourly earnings and factory orders, as well as a report by the Institute for Supply Management on service sector activity.

Franc Rises, Will SNB Intervention Follow?

The Swiss franc rose against the US dollar amid speculations that Greece is struggling to persuade creditors into forgiving part of the nation’s debt. The currency was falling against the euro and the yen on prospects for Swiss central bank’s intervention, but closed almost unchanged.

George Saravelos, a foreign-exchange strategist at Deutsche Bank, explained:


Central bank intervention could emerge any day now given where we are. How they act will influence the way investors think they will intervene going forward.

Indeed, the franc is near the cap set by the Swiss National Bank and the bank may come out with another intervention any day. Jean-Pierre Danthine, Member of the SNB Governing Board, reiterated at the press conference on January 24 that the bank plans to keep the Swiss currency weaker:


The SNB will thus continue to enforce the minimum rate with the utmost determination and remains prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities. The Swiss franc is still highly valued, but it should depreciate further in the future.

USD/CHF as down from 0.9202 to 0.9121. EUR/CHF closed at 1.2057 after opening at 1.2061 and rising to 1.2085. CHF/JPY closed at 83.97, following the drop from 84.11 to 83.35.

If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Swiss Franc, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

NZD/USD Rises to Highest Since September as Trade Balance Posts Surplus

The New Zealand dollar closed higher versus its US counterpart as nation’s trade balance posted an unexpected surplus last month. The currency closed lower against the euro and the Japanese yen.

New Zealand’s trade balance posted a surplus of NZ$338 million in December after showing a deficit of NZ$307 million. Forecasters promised a deficit of NZ$74 million. The surplus was a result of rising exports and falling imports. Milk powder, butter, and cheese were the main contributors to the advance of exports.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left its main interest rate unchanged at 2.5 percent on January 25. Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard said in the statement after the decision that prices for nation’s exports increased, but profits of exporters were limited by the appreciating currency, while the European crisis continued to have a negative impact. Regarding domestic fundamentals, Bollard said:


In the domestic economy we continue to see modest growth. Over recent months there have been signs of a limited recovery in household spending and the housing market. Further ahead, repairs and reconstruction in Canterbury will also provide a significant boost for an extended period, though there may be further delays resulting from the aftershocks.

Inflation wasn’t pressing to raise lending rates, either, as it fell and stabilized below 2 percent.

NZD/USD was up from 0.8215 to close at 0.8244, while earlier it touched 0.8248 — the highest level since September 20. Meanwhile, EUR/NZD as up from 1.5938 to 1.6017 and NZD/JPY was lower from 63.59 to 63.20.

If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the New Zealand Dollar, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

Loonie Rallies for Third Week, Going to Upside with Commodities

The Canadian dollar was rallying for a third week against the US dollar and the Japanese yen on a back of surging commodity prices. Commodities jumped after the US Federal Reserve announced its intention to keep interest rates low for a prolonged time, leading to weakness of the US currency. The currency was down against the euro for the second week.

The most positive event for the Canadian currency this week was the pledge of the Fed to keep rates low till at least late 2014. The US dollar fell and that resulted in a commodity rally that was positive for the loonie, which is a commodity currency. There were some negative factors, especially in the second half of the week. The most important among them were growing concerns about an outcome of the talks between Greece and bondholders and negative data from the United States, including lower-than-expected GDP growth.

The influence of the fundamentals was most obvious in the performance of Canada’s currency against the yen. CAD was rising against JPY for the most part of the week, but was falling in the last two days before the weekend. The impact of macroeconomic data was less evident in the performance of the loonie versus the euro and the greenback as CAD was rising against USD and falling versus EUR virtually for the whole week.

USD/CAD was down from 1.0140 to 1.0014, while CAD/JPY rose from 75.78 to 76.44 this week. EUR/CAD was up from 1.3061 to 1.3239 over the week.

If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Canadian Dollar, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

Friday, January 27, 2012

Asian and European trading sessions:

Euro: During the Asian trading session the EUR/USD pair traded in range $1.3094-$1.3132. Although, the Euro recorded today its new monthly high of $1.3182 during the European session, its growth was limited. The confidence of market participants that Greece government and private lenders will not be able to reach an agreement on Greek debt was pressuring the Euro currency. The EUR/USD retreated to $1.3150 level.


US Dollar: The U.S. dollar was traded lower against almost all of its major competitors during both sessions on the background of yesterday’s decision of FOMC regarding the interest rate. The committee decided to leave the interest rate unchanged at 0, 25% value and stated that this rate is going to be kept till 2014 year.


British Pound: The GBP / USD traded today positively showing its growth to $ 1.5716.


Japanese Yen: The USD / JPY pair continued it’s down trade which was started yesterday and dropped to Y77.40 level at the European trading session.

American trading session

Oil: Today, the March’s WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) futures grew to 101.32 dollars per barrel and closed at $99.84 mark.


Gold: The February gold futures on the COMEX rose today to the 1719.20 dollars per ounce.


Canadian dollar: For the first time since November, the Canadian dollar strengthened to parity with the U.S. dollar.


New Zealand dollar: Even though, the New Zealand country's central bank left its key interest rate at record low, the New Zealand dollar continued its four-day up trend.

Euro Weakens as Greece Argues with Creditors

The euro erased its yesterday’s gains against the US dollar and was flat today as Greece struggles to reach an agreement with creditors on a debt reduction. The currency fell versus the Japanese yen yesterday and continued to fall today.

The earlier discussion between Greece and its creditors ended in a stalemate. Some officials said that talks are progressing better this time, but investors are cautious to be overly optimistic about an outcome of the talks after the previous unfavorable result. The outcome of the discussion about credit swaps is very important for Greece and whole Europe.

Yesterday, the euro was rising and reached a monthly record versus the dollar and the yen as sentiment about Germany improved. GfK Consumer Climate increased from 5.7 to 5.9 in January, while Ifo Business Climate went from 107.3 in December to 108.3 this month.

EUR/USD traded near its opening level of 1.3106 as of 5:34 GMT today, while yesterday it reached 1.3183 — the highest rate since December 21. EUR/JPY was down from 101.50 to 100.93, while on the previous trading session it touched 102.20 — the price last seen in December 23.

If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Euro, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

CAD Reaches Parity vs. USD, Retreats

The Canadian dollar reached parity with its US peer yesterday, but retreated today as negative macroeconomic data from the United States decreased willingness of Forex traders to buy riskier currencies.

The pledge of the US Federal Reserve to keep its interest rates exceptionally low till at least 2014 was supporting commodities yesterday. Commodities make up about a half of Canada’s export revenue. The Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of commodities was up 0.3 percent yesterday.

Market mood was spoiled, though, as reports from the USA weren’t very good, especially increasing jobless claims and declining new home sales. The Canadian currency was particularly hurt by the poor US economic data as the United States is the major trading partner of Canada. Positive signs from the USA were a relief from the constant stream of bad news from Europe, but now traders are concerned that America may cease to support good sentiment on FX market and turn to yet another source of worries.

USD/CAD rose from 1.0020 to 1.0028 as of 7:44 GMT today, while yesterday it dropped as low as 0.9980 — the lowest level since November 1 (the last time the currency was at parity). EUR/CAD was up from 1.3124 to 1.3141, while CAD/JPY was down from 77.24 to 76.82.

If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Canadian Dollar, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

Iraqi Dinar Gains vs. Dollar, Falls Back to Opening

The Iraqi dinar gained against the dollar today, but fell back to the opening level later as tensions between Sunni, Shi’ite and Kurdish political groups intensify, adding to the political turmoil and preventing an introduction of the much needed oil law.

The oil law should resolve the disagreement between the central government in Baghdad and semi-autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan in the north over Iraq’s crude oil stockpiles. Country’s political blocks agreed on the law back in 2007, but its approval was postponed because of political infightings. Some ministers stay away from the cabinet, preventing a conclusive decision. Adel Barwari, adviser to Prime Minister Nouri al-Malik, said:


With these chronic political differences I can’t see any possibility of having an oil law this year. If the (differences) were, say for example, 2 or 3 percent, I would say yes we could have a law, but the percentage is much higher.

USD/IDQ fell to 1,163.00 intraday, but rebounded to its opening rate of 1,165.00 today as of 11:54 GMT.

If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Iraqi Dinar, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

Forex: EUR/USD currently capped at 1.3060

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The EUR/USD upside threw the pair from 1.3100 support to 1.3060 high during the European session. At the moment of writing, the cross is quoting around 1.3050.

The €11 bln in bonds sold by the Italian government at yields of 1.969% (versus 3.251% previously) for 6-month bills and 2.221% for 1-year paper, encouraged the FX market to stay on with risk sentiment.

Also in the European morning, IMF Lagarde stated her concerns on Eurozone’s next moves, ECB’s Paramo pointed to Spain’s banking problems, and George Soros advised European authorities to show markets their power and control.
FX Market Report analysts point to resistance at 1.3185, and support at 1.3025‐30 and 1.2945‐50.

Thursday, January 26, 2012

EURUSD tests close from yesterday after breaking below channel support



The EURUSD has broken trendline support at 1.3130 and with it came a wave of selling. The price has moved to the closing level from yesterday at 1.3106. Below that is the 38.2% of the move up from yesterday’s low at the 1.03086. Other support will likely come in against the lows for the day at the 1.3089-94 area. Activity remains light and was confined. So it is not unusual to see some profit taking when some bullishness is taken away (below trendline support).




Forex: EUR/USD retraces gains, drops to 1.3100

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - Following a failed attempt to break above 1.3180 and a consolidation phase, EUR/USD turned south and speeded to the downside during the American afternoon along with US equities.

EUR/USD dropped nearly 50 pips within the last hour, breaking below the 1.3135/30 support area to hit a session low at 1.3100 before bouncing slightly. At time of writing, EUR/USD is quoting around 1.3110, just 5 pips above its opening price.

In terms of technical levels, the Talking-Forex.com team sees supports at 1.3090, 1.2931 which is the 10DMA line and then at the 21DMA line at 1.2880. On the other hand, resistance levels are noted at 1.3199, 1.3237 and then at 1.3282.

Euro

During the Asian session the EUR / USD the pair traded in a narrow range of $ 1.3015 -$ 1.3049. The European trading session showed its decline to $1.2930 level where the couple found its low of the daily. The confidence of market participants that Greece and private lenders will not be able to reach an agreement on debt relief fell along with the euro currency The Euro dropped against its major competitors.

British Pound

The GBP / USD couple retreated from yesterday's highs during the Asian session. The pound fell after the report of GDP in Britain, which showed decrease in the 4th quarter by 0.2 % when expectations of a decline were by only 0.1%. The GBP / USD pair recorded its daily low reaching at $ 1.5530.

Japanese Yen

The yen fell against all 16 major currencies after Japan, for the first in 31 years, reported a deficit of annual trade balance in 2011. In details, in 2011 Japan had a deficit of $ 205.1 billion yen. The USD / JPY pair grew to the level of Y78.32 at the European session.

US Dollar

The dollar fell to a new low against the euro and recorded the area of $1.3118 after FOMC of the U.S kept the interest rate in the range of 0% -0.25 % which meant unchanged. According to comments of Federal Reserve on its decision, the interest rate would not be changed at least until the end of 2014.

Oil

The cost of the March futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI rose to 99.77 dollars per barrel.

Gold

Gold prices broke very important level of $1680 and rocketed to a new $ 1712 per troy ounce after FOMC announce a report on interest rate in US.

EURUSD

The pair has found support at Fibonacci 23% and aiming to the next Fibonacci level 38% at 1.31150 and the pair may rise to 1.31674.

Resistance: 1.31674, 1.33143, 1.34882

Support: 1.30277, 1.28630, 1.26897

GBPUSD

The pair has MACD convergence that may support pair to start upwards corrections. First aim is at 1.54842, the second level at 1.56722.

Resistance: 1.56722, 1.58543, 1.60322

Support: 1.54842, 1.53482, 1.52063

USDCHF

On daily graph MACD divergence which might be a signal of downwards corrections. The aim of correction can be at Moving Average (200) at 0.90279.

Resistance: 0.93069, 0.93949, 0.95074

Support: 0.92026, 0.91079, 0.89635

USDJPY

The pair’s resistance 78.345, support 77.539.

Resistance: 78.345, 79.070, 79.707

Support: 77.539, 76.463, 75.425

AUDUSD

The pair has broken triangle and has risen to 1.06164.

Resistance: 1.06164, 1.07005, 1.07739

Support: 1.05332, 1.04407, 1.03535

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Greenback Gains as Risk Aversion Rises

Greenback is gaining today on the Forex market as risk aversion rises. Uncertainty over what’s next for Greece, and how it will affect the eurozone, is pressuring the euro and helping the US dollar. Additionally, many Forex traders and investors are waiting for the latest policy announcement from the Federal Open Market Committee.


One of the areas of speculation and interest today is what the FOMC will announce regarding interest rate policy, as well as the forecast for the economy going forward. There is a great deal of anticipation for the announcement, which will come at the conclusion of a two-day meeting.

Meanwhile, Forex traders are concerned about rumblings out of the eurozone. Angela Merkel has issued a warning about the situation with Greece — and its possibly dire consequences for the eurozone and the world. The result is that safe haven is being sought, and the US dollar treated as a safe haven currency.

The stability of the US dollar has long been a reason that it has been considered a safe haven. Backed by what many consider the most stable taxpayer base in the world, the greenback makes an ideal safe haven currency during times of uncertainty.

At 15:48 GMT EUR/USD is lower at 1.2974, down from the open at 1.3036. GBP/USD is also lower at 1.5581, down from the open at 1.5626. USD/JPY is higher at 78.2460, up from the open at 77.6700,

If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the US Dollar, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

Euro: Good News Out of Germany, But All Eyes are on Greece

German business sentiment beat expectations for a third month in a row, but the good news has been overwhelmed by disappointment over developments in Greece. The latest in the Greek debt saga has Forex traders worried about what’s next, and that is dragging the euro lower, in spite of other news that is favorable to risk appetite.


Indeed, many think that, under normal circumstances, the euro should be improving. Apple earnings in the United States were reported as quite good. Analysts expect that the Federal Reserve will continue a low-rate policy. News out of Germany, the largest eurozone economy, is positive. However, with all of this, the euro is slipping, falling below the 1.30 against the US dollar.

Concerns that the European Central Bank will have to write down its share of Greek debt is weighting on the 17-nation currency. The ECB may be forced into such an action in order to avoid a debilitating default on the part of Greece. Even though a deal was worked out last fall for private bondholders to write down some of the debt, it may not be enough, and the public sector may need to become involved. The fact that the Greek debt problem has been dragging on for years now is starting to wear on Forex traders, and there is no truly palatable solution.

At 14:17 GMT EUR/USD is down to 1.2973 from the open at 1.3036. EUR/GBP is lower at 0.8320, down from the open at 0.8342.

If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Euro, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

Pound Drops as UK GDP Declines

The Great Britain pound fell against the US dollar and pared its gains versus the Japanese yen after the UK Office for National Statistics reported that the nation’s GDP shrank in the last quarter, adding to signs than Britain is entering recession.

Britain’s gross domestic product contracted 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011, following the expansion by 0.6 percent in the preceding quarter. Other economic indicators were actually good, but the slowdown of the economy overshadowed the positive data. Mervyn King, Bank of England Governor, spoke yesterday about a possibility of additional stimulus:


And, with inflation falling back and wage growth subdued, there is scope for interest rates to remain low, and, if necessary, for further asset purchases, to prevent inflation falling below the 2% target.

GBP/USD fell from 1.5622 to 1.5558 as of 13:00 GMT today. GBP/JPY was at about 121.49 after opening at 121.35 and reaching 122.02 — the highest price since December 27.

If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Great Britain Pound, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

Thai Central Bank Cut Interest Rates, Baht Weaker

The Thai baht fell today after the nation’s central bank reduced its key interest rate in an attempt to spur economic growth that has slowed last year because of the biggest floods in almost 70 years.

The Bank of Thailand reduced its main interest rate by 0.25 percent to 3.00 percent today. Last year’s floods resulted in closing of more than 16,000 factories, hurting economic growth. Thailand’s economy expanded 1.5 percent in 2011, while before the floods growth was estimated to be 4.5 percent. Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra promised to spend 350 billion baht ($11.1 billion) on infrastructure to prevent a new disaster.

USD/THB rose from 31.4250 to 31.6050 as of 12:22 GMT today, touching the daily maximum of earlier.

If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Thai Baht, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

AUD Rises Even as Inflation Stalls, Reaches Record vs. JPY

The Australian dollar strengthened today even after a report showed that nation’s consumer price inflation stalled in the fourth quarter of 2011. The currency reached a record high since November against the yen as Japan’s trade deficit widened.

Australia’s consumer price index remained unchanged in the December quarter after rising 0.6 percent in the previous three months. Analysts expected a 0.2 percent growth. The trimmed mean CPI (core inflation that excludes volatile components) rose 0.6 percent. It’s strange to see the Aussie rises even after the not-so-good report and amid risk aversion, but the Forex market often works in an unpredictable manner.

There is nothing strange in the advance of the Australian currency versus the yen, though, as Japan’s trade balance deficit rose for the third consecutive month in December. The deficit was 567.6 billion yen in the past month, increasing from 534.2 billion in November. The growing shortfall makes Japan’s “safe” currency to look less safe.

AUD/USD went higher from 1.0488 to 1.0512 and EUR/AUD went down from 1.2422 to 1.2380 as of 5:04 GMT today. AUD/JPY climbed from 81.47 to 81.87 and reached 82.08 today — the highest rate since November 1.

If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Australian Dollar, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

Canada’s Dollar Weakens as Growth of Retail Sales Slows

The Canadian dollar fell against its US counterpart today after Canadian retail sales slowed, hinting that Canada’s economy has problems that may slow economic growth. The currency was higher versus the yen.

Canada’s retail sales increased 0.3 percent in November, exactly as forecaster predicted. The growth was three times lower than the October advance by 0.9 percent. The slowdown of sales made economists speculate about problems of Canada’s economic growth.

Mark Carney, Bank of Canada Governor, thinks that one of the problems is over-reliance of Canadian consumers on credit to fuel household spending. Consumers contributed more than a half of the country’s 2 percent economic growth this year. Analysts say that it’s a good time to sell the loonie amid risk aversion that is returning to the Forex market.

USD/CAD was up from 1.0090 to 1.0106 as of 3:35 GMT today, while CAD/JPY rose from 76.93 to 77.09.

If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Canadian Dollar, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

Market Outlook for January 25, 2012

Investor optimism was dented yesterday after European finance ministers failed to agree on the Greek debt swap deal and called for a greater contribution from debt holders. Finance ministers are pushing bondholders for greater debt relief by asking them to accept lower interest returns in the proposed debt swap deal. The stalling of negotiations has fuelled concerns that Greece will fail to make a bond payment due in late March. The EUR fell from a high of 1.3065 during the Asian session yesterday to as low as 1.2948 in early European trade today.

In more sobering news, the IMF has cut global growth forecasts and warned that the “epicentre of the danger is Europe but the rest of the word is increasingly affected.” It cut global growth for 2012 from a September forecast of 4 percent to 3.3 percent and predicted a recession in Europe. The IMF called for an increase in the eurozone’s rescue fund and a more active role from the ECB to address the crisis. In a dire warning, the IMF warned of a 1930′s style worldwide depression unless more countries play their part and identified a possible global financing need of over $1 trillion in the next few years. Inflation in the UK for December fell to its lowest level in 6 months at an annual rate of 4.2% and the economy contracted in the fourth quarter which saw the GBP fall to as low as 1.5528.

Yesterday, US equities fell after advancing for five consecutive sessions as negotiations stalled in the proposed Greek debt swap deal. Furthermore, the IMF warned that there was potential for “political paralysis” in the United States that could lead to an unwinding of stimulus spending. Asian markets there were opened today closed higher while European shares are down about 1% mid session, falling for the second day, as Ericsson and Novartis missed earnings estimates.


Commodities News


Commodity prices managed modest rises yesterday despite growing global growth concerns. However, prices are falling during European trade. WTI crude is down 0.7% to $98.20 on Greek debt concerns expectations of rising stockpiles. Precious metals have also eased slightly with gold lower by 0.55% to $1,656 while silver has lost 0.48% to $31.80. Soft commodities were mixed while copper has lost 0.91%. The market now awaits the latest FOMC statement.


FX News


Today the currency markets preferred to shift its focus on the broader economic outlook rather than the Greek saga. On the radar are German IFO Business Climate (Jan), Bank of England Minutes, UK GDP and US FOMC rate decision.


EURUSD




EUR/USD traded within a narrow range during Asian session (1.3014 – 1.3041) today perhaps due to the Lunar Year celebration. The same could be expected for the rest of the week for Asia if no surprises hit the market. At the time of writing, euro spiked up to 1.5050 as German IFO was released. Market was expecting 107.6 but actual came out as 108.3 (last 107.3). But the spike was very short-lived as it pulled back to the comfortable 1.3020 – 1.3040 zone awaiting for the US FOMC rate decision. Economists expect no change from 0.25% but the risk may be that if the Fed is more dovish than what the market thinks, then you may see dollar selling in the pipeline. For the rest of London and New York session, we are still waiting for 1.3145 and support at 1.2983.


USDJPY




USD/JPY reached the highest level since Dec 28 at the time of writing to 78.10 in London time. The headline news was that Japan reported its first annual trade deficit in 30 years raising concerns about its fiscal health. The data also showed Japan’s exports declined for the third consecutive month – dropped 8% in Dec from a year earlier. JPY traders no doubt will now monitor if the deficit will continue to rise or if Japan’s sovereign rating is in question. Any hint of that should result in shorting the JPY. For the rest of the day and subject to FOMC release expect 77.60 (61.8% fib) to 78.25 trading range.



Euro – The Single Currency!

THE (rounded) capital letter “E”, with two strokes through the middle, is the symbol for the Euro. Officials say the symbol was inspired by the letter Epsilon of the Greek alphabet, with center parallel lines added to represent the strength and integrity of this currency.

The Euro is the currency of 12 European Union member states, namely: Austria, Belgium, France, Finland, Greece, Germany, Italy, Ireland, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, Portugal and Spain.

As well as the 12 European Union countries, a host of smaller nations are also joining the euro bandwagon. They are The Vatican, San Marino, Andorra, Kosovo, Monaco and Montenegro.

The Euro is the result of the most important monetary amendment in Europe since the Roman times.



A Currency to Reckon With


Though the Euro can be considered as a device for essentially integrating the Single European Market, expediting a free trade between members of the so-called Eurozone, it is also a crucial part of the European political landscape.

Eurozone is composed of a group of countries which use Euro as their common currency. It came into existence in 1999, and originally comprised of 11 countries.

As of 2009, 16 countries formed the Eurozone. That is to say that it did not include all European Union countries, and in fact some Euro zone countries are still not using the Euro; in order to be included in the Eurozone, a country must use the Euro as its only legal currency.

As a currency union, monetary policies are maintained and formed by the ECB, or the European Central Bank. Composed of the ECB and the Eurozone Central Banks functioning in member states, the Euro is administered by the European System of Central Banks (ESCB).

The ECB, based in Frankfurt am Main in Germany, has exclusive rights to set monetary rules; while other members of the ESCB join in the minting, printing and distribution of coins and notes, and the operation of the Eurozone payment system.



Looking Back

Back in 1999, a number of European nations adopted a single currency called the Euro to stabilize and boost the Eurozone’s economy.

To help ease exchange rate buoyancy among different European countries, which hampered investment by firms in various states, the European Union (EU) developed the European Monetary System in 1979. This idea paved the way for the creation of the European Currency Unit.

It became clear with time that an economic merg was needed among European nations in order to forge a stronger alliance in Europe. In 1991, members of the EU approved the Maastricht Treaty, a treaty that called for a single currency throughout Europe for the 21st century.

Having a single currency is expected to jack up the economic interdependency of and the ease of business between European Union members. This is essentially beneficial for citizens of the Euro area, as rises in trade used to be one of the main motivating factors of economic growth.

Some economists are concerned about the dangers that may arise of using a single currency in such a huge and multicultural area. The Eurozone has a single monetary policy set by the ECB and it cannot be polished for the economic situation in each country.

Of particular worry is the idea that EU may not all be “attuned” — each may be at a different level in the boom cycle, or just be experiencing different fluctuations. Labor movement is also higher in the US than across the Eurozone.

The euro has been said to supplement liquidity to the financial markets in Europe. Companies and even government can now loan in Euros instead of their local currency and this enable many more sources of funds to flow.

Other economists think that the power of the Eurozone would be in the collective efforts of a virtual stronger economy, in which it is now likely to create sound financial bonds, rather than in the mere addition of single liquidities.



Rise of the Euro

The euro’s rise from its lows started shortly after it was introduced as a cash currency. From 1999 and 2002, “Eurosceptics” tried to imply the weak Euro was a sign that it was destined to fail. But it can also be said that its weakness in this period was because of the low trust in a currency that did not exist in “real” form.

Once it became “real” in the sense of existing as a form of cash, the confidence level in the Euro rose and the increasing impression that it was here to stay helped raise its value. This effect was perhaps important in the currency’s decline and recovery between 1999 and 2002, but other factors were more significant since then.

In spite of the single currencies increase in value, in addition to the rise of the other Majors (GBP, JPY, CAD, CHF, AUD) and minor currencies, the United States trade deficits continue to steadily increase. Economic theory would suggest that a decline in the dollar and an increase in the Euro should lead to a growth in US trade (greater amount of imports and lesser amount of exports), as the former becomes more affordable and the latter more expensive.

There is speculation that the strength of the Euro in relation to the dollar might encourage the use of the Euro as an alternative reserve currency; Saddam Hussein’s Iraq switched its currency reserves from dollars to Euros during the Gulf War in 2002.

Moves by central banks with big reserve holdings such as those of China or India to switch some of their reserves from dollars to euros, or even of Oil Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to switch the currency they trade in from dollars to euros, will further boos the decline of the dollar.



Did You Know That…
the euro is the second biggest currency reserve and the second most-traded currency on the planet next to the United States dollar?
it has the largest combined banknotes and coin value in circulation in the world with more than 800 billion, as of June 2010, overtaking the US dollar?
according to the International Monetary Fund estimates of purchasing power parity and 2009 Gross Domestic Product among other currencies, the EuroZone is the second biggest economy in the world?
the first batch of the euro that was minted in France was three times heavier than the Eiffel Tower when weighed?
when put from one end to another — the almost 15 billion banknotes and 50 billion coins that had been transported around Europe when the Euro was launched – would stretch from the Earth all the way to the Moon and back two and a half times

THE UNITED States Dollar or USD

THE UNITED States Dollar or USD for short is the world’s top benchmark currency and the most widely accepted monetary unit that is used in nine out of 10 currency transactions. It is the official monetary unit of the United States of America although dozens of other countries use the USD as their official currency while several more adopted it as their unofficial currency.

Among the countries that use the USD as their official currency are El Salvador, East Timor and Ecuador. In addition former US territories such as the Marianas, Palau and the Micronesia Federation still use the US dollar despite having gained their independence many years ago while dozens more states peg the value of their currencies to the USD.

Known by its symbol “$” or US$ to distinguish it from other countries using also the term ‘dollar’ and similar signs for their own currencies, the USD is also the pricing currency for most of the world’s vital commodities such as petroleum, precious metals like gold and silver and other similar products. It is composed of 100 units called cents although unknown to most people, one USD can also be broken down as 1,000 mills. However, the practice of the using the mill as a unit is not widespread and it is used primarily in taxation accounting and other official purposes.

As the most preferred global reserve currency, most institutions, conglomerates and governments hold substantial quantities of USD as part of their foreign exchange reserves, allowing them to purchase needed commodities without excessive transaction expenses. In addition, institutional lenders and organizations tend to give favorable terms and interest rates to states and companies holding large volumes of US dollars as the USD is still considered as the most stable & reliable currency.

Despite the recent financial woes of the United States, the USD still remains as the world’s currency standard. As the basic monetary unit of the world’s largest economy managed by the most stable government and protected by the most powerful military, the US dollar is expected to be traded and used extensively by most of the economies for years to come.



Origins of the USD

The Coinage Act passed by the United States Congress in 1792 gave birth to the USD. The law mandated the ‘dollar’ to be the official monetary unit of the United States along with the creation of the United States Mint, the authorized agency to produce coins for circulation in the country.

The name ‘dollar’ can be traced back to the German word “Taler”, a shortened word which referred to Joachimstaler, silver coins that were minted in the 1500s by a Bohemian noble who sourced silver from a valley called Joachimstal in the present day Czech Republic.

The value of the newly-created USD currency at the time was pegged by the Treasury Department to the Mexican peso on 1 dollar to 1 peso basis and should be equal to 371 and 416 grains of silver. The 1792 Coinage Act also designated the ‘eagle’, equal to 10 dollars, as another unit legal tender unit for payment of debts, products and services with a set value of 247 to 270 grain of gold. The actual silver or gold value of the issued dollar or eagle was then converted to the equivalent value of goods and services at that time.

For several decades, the US dollar was strictly based on the specifications set by 1792 Coinage Act until 1834 when the US government decided to set the USD to gold at 23.2 grains per 1 USD coin. In 1862, paper currency was issued for the first time to help the government finance the civil war.

In 1900, the US government dropped silver from one of its benchmark metals and set the USD on gold set at 23.22 grains per USD. By 1933, the use of gold coins was discontinued and in 1970s, the USD was officially taken off the gold standard and allowed to float freely.




The USD Sign

There have been different versions on how the USD sign “$” came to be adopted. Many historians attribute the symbol’s origins to the Straits of Gibraltar also known as the Pillars of Hercules appearing in the Spanish coat of arms that were stamped on Spanish coins or Spanish dollars as they were called, wherein the two columns wrapped by a scroll (or cloth according to some scholars) in the form of a letter “S”’. The two pillars are represented in the USD sign as two vertical lines or bars with the scroll or the S in the middle.




USD Issuance and Production

USD notes are issued by the central bank of the United States also known as the Federal Reserve depending on the need as it purchases and sells Treasury securities in the open market as part of its monetary policy and operations. However, the actual paper money is printed by the Bureau of Engraving and Printing while the coins are still produced by the United States Mint upon the request of the Department of Treasury who takes the Federal Reserve’s order to produce the USD.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Analysis

The spot rate is currently testing the upper limit of its medium term bearish channel at 1.3060 and seems to initiate a decline. Though, passing these levels will relase significant potential and initiate a bullish trend.

Technical indicators give sell-signals suggesting a decline in the short term.

According to previous events, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate will break through its resistance at 1.3060 with the 1st objective of 1.3120, then 1.3150. A break at 1.3040 will invalidate this scenario.

Friday, January 20, 2012

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Sunday, January 15, 2012

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